The Institute of Financial Planning and FP Canada™ jointly publish the 2026 Projection Assumption Guidelines

MONTRÉAL and TORONTO – April 23, 2025 – The Institute of Financial Planning and FP Canada announced today the joint release of the 2026 Projection Assumption Guidelines and Addendum, an essential tool for financial planners across Canada.

The Projection Assumption Guidelines are used to build long-term financial projections (10 years or more) based on coherent, objective assumptions grounded in reliable publicly available data. They enable financial planners to produce more uniform and comparable projections for their clients.

“The Projection Assumption Guidelines play a key role in the quality of financial advice provided to the public. They support the rigour and consistency of the analyses used by financial planners, to the benefit of their clients,” says Caroline Champagne, President & CEO of the Institute of Financial Planning.

The Projection Assumption Guidelines for 2026 are as follows:

Inflation rate 2.1%

Return rates

Short-term 2.4%
Fixed-income 3.2%
Canadian equities 6.4%
U.S. equities 6.6%
International developed-market equities 6.6%
Emerging market equities 7.5%

YMPE or MPE growth rate 3.1%

Shelter Projection Considerations 3.1%

Borrowing rate 4.4%

The 2026 Projection Assumption Guidelines come into effect on April 30, 2026.

New considerations for 2026

The 2026 Projection Assumption Guidelines introduce a new assumption for Shelter Projection Considerations (primary residence appreciation and primary residence rents). This new addition is intended to better reflect an important component of households’ financial reality.

This assumption is supported notably by data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) as well as international research.

“Because housing costs represent a significant and persistent component of a household’s financial picture, the Committee believed it was important to offer planners clear guidance in this area. Establishing long‑term housing assumptions within a principled framework supports more consistent and defensible financial projections,” says Nick Hearne, CFP® CFA and Chair of the Projection Assumption Guidelines Committee.

The 2026 Guidelines also include updates to the Mortality and Probability of Survival Tables to include same-sex couples, in addition to individuals and opposite-sex couples, thereby improving the accuracy and inclusiveness of longevity estimates.

Finally, new guidance has been added to support the interpretation of short-term inflation conditions in financial planning scenarios.

Addendum

The Guidelines are accompanied by a detailed Addendum presenting the data sources used, a correlation matrix between asset classes, as well as historical Guidelines dating back to 2009. The Addendum is a valuable tool that enables financial planners to fully understand the foundations of the Guidelines and replicate the recommended calculations.

Governance

The Projection Assumption Guidelines Committee is composed of individuals who hold either the F.Pl. designation (Québec) or the CFP^® designation (rest of Canada), and who are also either actuaries or Chartered Financial Analysts. The Committee is overseen by an independent panel composed of financial planners (CFP professionals or F.Pl. designation holders) and a member of the public.

About the Institute of Financial Planning

As a leader in developing and promoting personal financial planning, the Institute of Financial Planning's mission is to ensure that today’s and tomorrow’s financial services professionals have the knowledge, the know-how and the social skills required to contribute to the financial well-being of people, families, and communities. For more information, visit institutefp.org.

About FP Canada

Established in 1995, FP Canada is a national not-for-profit education, certification and professional oversight organization working in the public interest. FP Canada is dedicated to championing better financial wellness for all Canadians by leading the advancement of professional financial planning in Canada.