The Institute of Financial Planning and FP Canada™ jointly publish the 2025 Projection Assumption Guidelines

MONTRÉAL and TORONTO – April 23, 2025 – The Institute of Financial Planning (the Institute) and FP Canada announced today the joint release of the 2025 Projection Assumption Guidelines and Addendum, an essential tool for financial planners across Canada.

Used to establish long-term financial projections (10 years or more), the Guidelines enable financial planners to formulate consistent and objective assumptions, based on reliable data. They are updated each year, thanks to the rigorous work of a committee of professionals holding F.Pl. or CFP® designations, as well as actuary or CFA designations.

“Over the years, the Projection Assumption Guidelines have become a recognized benchmark in the profession. They make it possible to develop financial plans based on solid, shared assumptions, while reinforcing the credibility of projections with clients”, emphasizes Chantal Lamoureux, LL.B., CRHA, Distinction Fellow, ICD.D, President and CEO of the Institute.

New this year


The 2025 Guidelines introduce a separate assumption for U.S. equities, reflecting the common practice of financial planners who often treat this market separately. In addition, the methodology for emerging markets has been enhanced by access to new historical data, enabling a more accurate representation of observed returns.

The Projection Assumption Guidelines for 2025 are as follows:

Inflation rate: 2.1%

Return rates

Short-term: 2.4%
Fixed-income: 3.4%
Canadian equities: 6.6%
U.S. equities: 6.6%
International developed-market equities: 6.9%
Emerging market equities: 8.0%

YMPE or MPE growth rate: 3.1%

Borrowing rate: 4.4%

The Institute launched the first Projection Assumption Guidelines in 2008. In 2015, they took on a pan-Canadian scope thanks to a partnership with FP Canada. The document presents estimated rates for different asset classes, as well as a rate of inflation and growth in maximum pensionable earnings (YMPE or MPE). For shorter-term projections, professionals can rely on real rates for investments held to maturity and dividend yields on equities.

The Projection Assumption Guidelines are developed and maintained by a committee of financial planners (individuals who hold the F.Pl. in Quebec or CFP® certification in the rest of Canada) who are also actuaries or hold the CFA designation. The Projection Assumption Guidelines Committee is overlooked by the Standards Panel, an independent group comprised of financial planners (F.Pl. or CFP®) and a member of the public.

An Addendum to take things further

Since 2017, the Guidelines have been accompanied by a detailed Addendum that presents the data sources, a correlation matrix between the different asset classes, and the historical Guidelines since 2009. The Addendum is a valuable tool for professionals wishing to fully understand the basis of the Guidelines and reproduce the recommended calculations.

About the Institute of Financial Planning

As a leader in developing and promoting personal financial planning, the Institute of Financial Planning's mission is to ensure that today’s and tomorrow’s financial services professionals have the knowledge, the know-how and the social skills required to contribute to the financial well-being of people, families, and communities. For more information, visit institutefp.org.

About FP Canada

Established in 1995, FP Canada is a national not-for-profit education, certification and professional oversight organization working in the public interest. FP Canada is dedicated to championing better financial wellness for all Canadians by leading the advancement of professional financial planning in Canada.